USA Today has just published a piece about eBook adoption and eBook sales and offers a more measured approach than, say, Negroponte who proclaimed yesterday that printed books would be obsolete in five years.
While this piece doesn't hit every note, it certainly attempts to and offers both sides of the eBook argument for both publishers and consumers. Two sections of note:
"An estimated 4 million U.S. homes have an e-book reader such as Amazon's Kindle or Barnes & Noble's Nook, according to Forrester Research, which predicts sales of more than 29 million devices by 2015.
In a Harris poll conducted in August, 8% say they have an e-reader; 12% are likely to buy one in the next six months. But 80% say they're not likely to do so.
Those results "ratify that using devices for something (reading) that doesn't require a device at all, and has worked perfectly well for centuries, may not be of obvious appeal to the bulk of readers," says Michael Cader, founder of Publishers Lunch, a digital newsletter.
Michael Norris, an analyst with Simba Information, a market research firm, also questions if a tipping point has been reached.
He sees "gradual, uninterrupted growth in e-books, but tipping point implies there will be something overnight which will instantly change the character of the publishing business. Thousands of new consumers are showing up in the e-book 'yes' column every day, but on the other hand, there are still over 120 million people who buy print books."
Fair enough.
"Grove/Atlantic's Morgan Entrekin says that "the change will not happen as fast as it has happened in the music business or even in the newspaper and magazine world." He sees a substantial market for physical books for at least another 20 to 30 years, "but eventually, 30, 40 or 50 years from now, e-books will be the predominant form."
A more measured approach than Negroponte's? Or just as extreme but on the opposite end of the spectrum?
